SPIRIT
Inference for Small Area Estimation through Generative Methods: A Focus on Gender Disparities
SPIRIT is a research collaboration between the University of Rwanda and the University of Geneva. It develops statistical methodology for Small Area Estimation and applies it to the analysis of gender disparities in Rwanda, combining methodological research with doctoral training and international research collaboration.
Partners: University of Rwanda and University of Geneva
Period: 1 June 2025 – 31 December 2028
Funding: Swiss National Science Foundation (SNSF), SPIRIT programme
Grant: CHF 453,270
About the project
Small Area Estimation is used when reliable statistics are needed for relatively small geographical areas or population groups, but direct survey estimates are imprecise because the available samples are small. SPIRIT addresses this problem through methodological research on statistical inference, using generative and simulation-based methods to construct more accurate confidence intervals for small-area estimates. The research begins with linear mixed models and extends to generalized linear mixed models.
Research and applications
The project will develop statistical methods and apply them to Rwandan data concerning maternal and child health and socio-economic gender disparities, including disparities in employment and income. This connects the development of improved inference directly with substantive questions about gender disparities in Rwanda. The methods and software developed through the project are intended to be made openly available for wider use.
Doctoral training and collaboration
Doctoral training is integrated into the research through three funded PhD positions in mathematical statistics at the University of Rwanda. The doctoral researchers are expected to contribute to the project’s research while receiving research training and opportunities for international mobility and collaboration with the University of Geneva.
The SNSF project record also lists Maria Ferrante and Maria-Pia Victoria-Feser of the University of Bologna as project collaborators. The formal project applicants and institutional partnership are based at the University of Geneva and the University of Rwanda; the University of Bologna is therefore not presented here as a third project partner.
SPIRIT is relevant to CoRE-Math because it connects mathematical and statistical research at an African member university with a European research environment while combining research collaboration, doctoral training and researcher mobility. The project is funded through the SNSF SPIRIT programme and is led by the participating universities, rather than funded or administered by CoRE-Math.